Is a nation can be in the era of “forever war” or on the path to an unprecedented revival?
In the past six years, between 2020 and 2026, the State of Israel has undergone an accelerated trajectory that has completely changed the definition of its national security. What began with a mysterious global pandemic and continued with unprecedented social upheavals shattered on one morning in October 2023 and has since been rewritten in blood, fire, and a profound change in perception. Israel is no longer the same country; it has become a modern fortress trying to decipher whether its destiny is to live by its sword forever, or whether the great rift is the beginning of a new revival.
Social Resilience: The New Front Line
The internal component has gone from being an “additional issue” to the core of national security. The lessons of the Corona (2020–2022) have taught us that a civilian crisis requires military involvement and that distrust of the establishment is a strategic threat. The 2023 rupture over internal discord made it clear to our enemies that social polarization is seen as a weakness that can be exploited. In 2026, the updated perception is that social cohesion is a deterrent. National security now rests on society's ability to bear the burden over time – economically and psychologically – with the understanding that domestic resilience is the condition for victory on the front.
The Seven Front War: The End of the Era of "Rounds"
The Israel of recent years is no longer fighting against a single terrorist organization, but against an Iranian "ring of fire" operating in seven sectors: Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Judea and Samaria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran itself. The old perception that it is possible to "manage the conflict" or buy temporary peace has completely collapsed. In its place, a doctrine of active decision-making has been born, but it is accompanied by a difficult dilemma: Where are we going? The lack of clarity about the “day after” and the lack of a complementary political concept create a sense of confusion, despite tremendous operational achievements.
“Will victory be won by the sword?” – The Israeli Paradox
The combination of three years of continuous fighting and political instability has created deep erosion. Israel is struggling to define what “victory” is in the 21st century – is it the elimination of a leader or a change in the enemy’s consciousness? The new security concept assumes that the sword is an integral part of existence. Israel is no longer seeking “eternal peace” but “permanent power,” and the economy and society are adapting to life in a state of ongoing emergency.
A look into the future: What awaits us?
As futurists, we can outline the outlines of the coming years (2027–2030):
1. AI army and autonomy: To solve the erosion of reserves, Israel will transition to a much smaller and smarter army. Robots and autonomous systems will replace some of the physical presence on the lines of contact, allowing for sustained combat with minimal casualties.
2 .National Security as a Civilian “Operating System”: Local leadership (mayors) will become the center of gravity for security, with an emphasis on education for resilience and community as a way of life.
3. Regional NATO: The answer to the seven fronts will be a strategic alliance with the “moderate axis” (Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states) under American auspices
